It’s been a while since our last Brexit update. Based on our latest network analysis, Boris Johnson and Ursula Von der Leyen have emerged onto the centre stage.
The newly elected members of the European Parliament finally choose Von der Leyen as the successor of Juncker. And Boris Johnson yesterday replacing Theresa May as the new Prime Minister of UK. Although both Johnson and Von der Leyen are still very new to their jobs, they have already managed to shift the social networks among UK and EU politicians significantly.
The upper chart shows the landscape of key politicians in February 2019, while the bottom chart shows the landscape now in July 2019.
The right-hand side of the chart represents the UK (purple and blue) and the left-hand side represents the EU (orange and brown).
On UK (right-hand side), Boris Johnson has moved to the very centre area. We think his willingness to confront EU made him deeply “connected” with the EU side, for both good and bad reasons. Jeremy Corbyn is still quite distant from the centre stage. We are also surprised to see that the “Bremain” supporting MPs have either been side-lined or disappeared from the network, and the market has reflected this observation by pricing in more likelihood of hard Brexit.
On the EU side, Von der Leyen emerged to centre out of nowhere. The highly regarded successor of Draghi, Christine Lagarde, has also emerged into the game but so far only captures very little connections.
We think the transformation of the landscape of Brexit network in such a short period of time is very fascinating, and we will stop here and not rushing to make any interpretation. Let’s see how this network will evolve as we move forward to October and the deadline to leave, deal or not.